2019 NCAA Tournament: Super Regionals Preview and Prediction

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After a great first weekend of the 2019 NCAA Baseball Tournament, we move to the Super Regionals where we have some high profile matchups.

We saw 12 one-seeds advance from the regionals, and three 3-seeds with Auburn being the only 2-seed to advance.

So it’s pretty much been chalk so far, but that leads to a lot of very interesting matchups this weekend.

Los Angeles – UCLA-Michigan

This was supposed to be a matchup of two Pac-12 teams, but Oregon State went 0-2 and Michigan benefitted. The Wolverines offense averaged 10 runs a game in the regional, while Karl Kauffmann continued to dominate. If they keep scoring like that and Jeff Criswell and Tommy Henry continue to step up behind Kauffmann, this Michigan team could be who we thought would be at the beginning of the season.

The UCLA offense was not great in the regionals averaging just under five runs a game. They’ll need to do better against this Michigan pitching staff. They had to use ace Ryan Garcia on Friday and Monday to get through the regionals. It will be interesting to see when he pitches this weekend. But the Bruins pitching staff was very impressive in the regionals giving up 2, 3, 6 (Baylor), 1, and 3 runs.

The pick: UCLA

Lubbock – Texas Tech-Oklahoma State

I’m not used to Oklahoma State getting it done on the mound, but that’s exactly what happened in the regionals. They won their regional last weekend despite scoring just 13 runs in four games. But the pitching staff allowed just 11 runs. Jensen Elliott has been great and leads that starting rotation. But behind him they just kind of piece that staff together. Parker Scott is a weapon in any way they use him. If they are going to take down Texas Tech, they’ll need a better effort from their offense.

Cameron Warren and Josh Jung lead a powerful offensive attack for the Red Raiders. They’ve combined for 28 home runs and 128 RBI this season. If they can get just enough pitching from Micah Dallas and Caleb Kilian, they have some sollid bullpen arms with John McMillon, Taylor Floyd and others.

The pick: Texas Tech

Fayetteville – Arkansas-Ole Miss

We get a rematch from the regular season when Ole Miss took 2-of-3 from Arkansas in Fayetteville. Ole Miss is playing much better lately with Will Ethridge and Doug Nikhazy bolstering the top of the starting rotation. The offense has been up-and-down lately, but the players are there to get it done.

Arkansas got one tough battle in the regionals as Isaiah Campbell faced off against Nick Lodolo, and Campbell came out on top giving up 1 run on 4 hits and 1 walks over 8 innings with 8 strikeouts. The two teams faced again in the regional finals and Patrick Wicklander gave the Razorbacks a huge start. If he continues to pitch like that, Arkansas will be an even more dangerous team. We all know the offense can score.

The pick: Arkansas

Baton Rouge – LSU-FSU

Playing for Mike Martin, Florida State dominated the Athens regional scoring 13, 12, and 10 runs as they swept the regional. Those last two games coming against a very good Georgia pitching staff. Drew Parrish will need to be more like Drew Parrish for them to have a chance against LSU. Conor Grady has emerged as a solid third starter behind Parrish and CJ Van Eyk. I’m expecting a lot of runs in this series, so if Florida State can get some big starts from it’s talented starters, they have a good chance at advancing.

Cole Henry has given the LSU starting rotation a big boost. And moving Zack Hess back to the bullpen has lengthened the depth of their pitching. But no question, if LSU is going to reach Omaha, they’ll do it on the back of their offense, which is led by Josh Smith, Antoine Duplantis, and Zach Watson.

The pick: Florida State

Nashville – Vanderbilt-Duke

Duke got some amazing pitching in the regionals with Ben Gross giving up just 1 run in 7 innings against Texas A&M, Bryce Jarvis pitched 8 shutout innings against West Virginia and Alek Manoah, and then Bill Chillari, Jack Carey, and Matt Dockman combined to give up just 1 run against Texas A&M in the regional finals. They’ll need similar performances to have a chance against Vanderbilt’s offense this weekend.

Vanderbilt cruised through the regionals and didn’t really get tested. And now they get to face a 3-seed in Duke. I really find it hard to believe that Duke’s pitching will be able to back-up their regional performance and hold down this Vanderbilt offense led by J.J. Bleday, Austin Martin, Stephen Scott, Ethan Paul, and so on.

The pick: Vanderbilt

Louisville – Louisville-East Carolina

The Pirates made it hard on themselves in the regionals losing their first game 5-4 to Quinnipiac. But then the offense went to work scoring 9, 13, 10, and 12 completing the comeback in the loser’s bracket. This team isn’t just about its deep lineup, which includes Alec Burleson, Bryant Packard, Spencer Brickhouse, and Jake Washer — but they can pitch as well with guys like Burleson, Jake Agnos, and Jake Kuchmaner.

Like ECU, Louisville had to fight out of the loser’s bracket after losing their second game of the regional. But they were able to beat Illinois State twice to advance. This team has been a head-scratcher for me this year. I feel like they should be a top 5 team, but at times they play like a team at the back of the top 25. Reid Detmers has been incredible all year as a starting pitcher, as has Tyler Fitzgerald on offense. How the supporting cast performs will depend on if the Cardinals advance to Omaha.

The pick: East Carolina

Starkville – Mississippi State-Stanford

Stanford had an interesting regional where they dominated Sacramento State twice outscoring them 23-3, but then played three really close games against Fresno State where they were actually outscored 20-19. But they won the final two games against Fresno by two runs each. Brendan Beck and Erik Miller are a solid one-two punch in the starting rotation, and Alex Williams has been great as well. Jack Little was incredible out of the bullpen in the regionals. This team looks really scary on paper.

The Bulldogs blew past the competition in the regionals beating all three teams in the regional, including a 5-2 win over Miami in the regional finals. Mississippi State has it’s own great one-two punch in the starting rotation with Ethan Small and J.T. Ginn. The difference could be in the back-end of the pitching staff, where I think Stanford has the edge. But I’ll never bet against Jake Mangum, who will lead that Bulldog lineup.

The pick: Mississippi State

Chapel Hill – North Carolina-Auburn

One of my best picks from the regionals was picking Auburn. They have a solid top of the rotation with Jack Owen and Tanner Burns who can shut down any lineup. The question all season for Auburn has been the offense. If guys like Steven Williams and Will Holland play to thier talent level, the Tigers easily advance to Omaha. But from what we’ve seen so far this season, that’s a big if.

Earlier in the season I thought North Carolina was one of the five best teams in the country, but they’ve been up-and-down all year. Tyler Baum and Austin Bergner have not lived up to expectations and losing Luca Dalatri obviously hurts. Austin Love and Joey Lancellotti have both been great weapons out of the bullpen. If Michael Busch and that Tar Heel offense can get an early lead, look for Mike Fox to go to those two guys out of the bullpen early.

The pick: North Carolina

To recap, here is who I have advancing to Omaha

UCLA
Texas Tech
Arkansas
Florida State

Vanderbilt
East Carolina
Mississippi State
North Carolina

Check back next week as we give our preview and prediction for the 2019 College World Series!