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2013 NCAA Regional Projections (April 23rd)

13regionalprojections_smAs we’re now well into the 2013 college baseball season, College Baseball Daily continues our countdown to Selection Monday with our latest 2013 Regional Projections.

For this week’s projections, instead of being solely compiled based on RPI like they have been done in past weeks, every aspect was taken into consideration. College Baseball Daily’s Ginger Poulson (@gingerpoulson) compiled this list after analyzing RPI, overall records, conference standings, overall talent and several other factors. If you have any questions about the projections feel free to leave a comment below or send her a tweet.

Enjoy the regional projections!

 

KEY: Bolded Teams are Regional Hosts, (#) is National Seed, * is Automatic Qualifier

Baton Rouge Regional

1. *LSU (1)

2. Georgia Tech

3. *Southern Miss

4. *Stephen F. Austin

 

Louisville Regional

1. Louisville

2. Indiana

3. Austin Peay State

4. *UW-Milwaukee

 

Chapel Hill Regional

1. *North Carolina (2)

2.  Kentucky

3. *Western Carolina

4. *Buffalo

Fayetteville Regional

1. Arkansas

2. Arizona

3. Mercer

4. *Jackson State

Fullerton Regional

1. *Cal State Fullerton (3)

2. Kansas State

3. San Diego

4. *Dartmouth

 Tempe Regional

1. Arizona State

2. *New Mexico

3. UC Irvine

4. Florida Gulf Coast

 

Nashville Regional

1. Vanderbilt (4)

2. Clemson

3. *Tennessee Tech

4. *St. Louis

 

Raleigh Regional

1. North Carolina State

2. *UNC-Wilmington

3. Western Kentucky

4. *Campbell

 

Charlottesville Regional

1. Virginia (5)

2. Alabama

3. Coastal Carolina

4. *Bryant

 

Columbia Regional

1. South Carolina

2. Pittsburgh

3. *Missouri State

4. *Maine

Corvallis Regional

1. *Oregon State (6)

2. *Gonzaga

3. Houston

4. *Rider

 

 Norman Regional

1. *Oklahoma

2. Mississippi

3. *Minnesota

4. *Nebraska-Omaha

 

Eugene Regional

1. Oregon (7)

2. *CSU Bakersfield

3. Kansas

4. *Delaware State

 

Starkville Regional

1. Mississippi State

2. Rice

3. *North Florida

4. *South Alabama

Los Angeles Regional

1. UCLA (8)

2. Cal Poly

3. UNLV

4. *Holy Cross

 

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State

2. Florida

3. *South Florida

4. Florida Atlantic

 

Predicted Conference Champions
(Automatic Qualifiers)

Note: Changes from last week are noted with the previously projected conference champion in italics following the newly predicted conference champion

America East: Maine
Atlantic 10: St. Louis
ACC: North Carolina
Atlantic Sun: North Florida 
Big 12: Oklahoma
Big Ten: Minnesota (Previous: Indiana)
Big East: South Florida (Previous: Louisville)
Big South: Campbell
Big West: Cal State Fullerton
CAA: UNC Wilmington
Conference USA: Southern Miss 
Horizon: Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Ivy League: Dartmouth
MAAC: Rider 
MAC: Buffalo (Previous: Kent State)
MEAC: Delaware State
Missouri Valley: Missouri State (Previous: Wichita State)
Mountain West: New Mexico
Northeast: Bryant
Ohio Valley: Tennessee Tech 
Pac-12: Oregon State
Patriot: Holy Cross (Previous: Army)
SEC: Louisiana State
Southern: Western Carolina 
Southland: Stephen F. Austin (Previous: Southeastern Louisiana)
SWAC: Jackson State 
Summit League: Nebraska-Omaha (Previous: South Dakota State)
Sun Belt: South Alabama
West Coast: Gonzaga
WAC: CSU Bakersfield

Breakdown of Teams by Conference

  • 9 teams: SEC
  • 6 teams: ACC
  • 5 teams: Pac-12
  • 3 teams: Atlantic Sun, Big 12, Big East, Big West, Conference USA, Sunbelt
  • 2 teams: Big Ten, Big South, Mountain West, Ohio Valley, West Coast
  • 1 team: America East, Atlantic 10, Colonial, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summit, WAC

 

  • Ken

    Not sure how you have a South Alabama team with an RPI of 12 and in 1st place in the 5th rated conference as a 4 seed, but I do like the location. Can definitely see South making it out of that regional.

    • Ginger Poulson

      It ended up being a location thing and strength of regional. Probably the strongest four-seed I have, they just wouldn’t have fit in as a higher seed with their geographic location elsewhere without doubling up teams from the same conference. I agree though, really strong team! Looking forward to see what they can do with the rest of the season. If they continue to perform at this level, expect to see them as a higher seed in my future projections. Thanks for checking them out!

      • Garth

        How do you have WKU as a 3 seed and South Al and FAU as 4 seeds when they are leading conference and you projected them to win

        • Alex

          Good catch, Garth. WKU gets a 3-seed with an RPI of 71, while South Alabama wins the same conference and has an RPI of 12 for a 4-seed. Silly.

          • Ginger Poulson

            Like I said, that was a location thing. And although Miami has an excellent RPI, their record is below .500 in conference play and Virginia Tech would get a bid before them in my eyes. Honestly, I accidentally flipflopped Campbell and WKU in that regional as I typed it wrong…finished these at 3 am and it’s finals week so unfortunately my brain makes little mistakes every once in a while! I still don’t see Miami getting in though despite their RPI unless they improve in conference play.

          • Alex

            Then how do you have Kentucky in as a #2 with a conference record of 7-11 and RPI of 31?

            And #2 seeds don’t fall to become #4 seeds because of “location”. Good effort, I guess, but this projection isn’t very realistic.

          • Ginger Poulson

            Key word is projection. You might not agree with it, but ultimately they are how I see the rest of the season playing out with the majority of the emphasis being on performances thus far, that’s why they’re my projections :) My email is up top, feel free to start from scratch and make your own projections and share them with me…I’d love to discuss them as they’re a lot more work than you would imagine. I say Miami doesn’t get in because I don’t see them doing anything strong in the remainder of the season and they haven’t done anything significant yet. I think Kentucky finishes out the season strong so a two seed is not unrealistic at all, and an RPI of 31 isn’t that high if that’s why you’re being critical. As strong as South Alabama is, they aren’t a two seed yet. Probably a three seed, and that I can attest to not giving them enough credit. They could hypothetically improve to a two seed, but they aren’t leading that conference enough for me to give them a two. I understand why RPI is a great argument for a team to make the field, but RPI is not perfect, that’s why the system to generate RPI continues to change throughout the years. Miami is a bubble team though ultimately, they have a slight chance of making the tournament still, but in no way does their RPI alone entitle them to a bid. Thanks for your comments, sorry that we don’t agree on them all, but that’s part of the nature of projections!

          • Alex

            Projections are fun, and part of that is haggling over similar teams, but there are some real atrocities in this list that stick out like a sore thumb to those of us who have followed this topic for years. There has to be SOME effort to think like the committee does.

            Take Miami vs. Kentucky. Miami has a better overall record, conference record, RPI, strength of schedule, record vs. top 50, record vs. top 100, record in last 10, and road record. Miami has the edge in literally EVERY category that the committee looks at. Yet Kentucky is a #2 and Miami is out. The first line of defense was “ignore Miami’s RPI, look at their conference record”. When It was pointed out that UK’s conference record is worse, it changed to “well an RPI of 31 isn’t that bad”. Huh? Ignore #11, but #31 is good enough? Got it. By the way, Miami’s RPI is now at #10 after yet another top 50 win tonight. Feel free to show me the last time a power conference team with an RPI of #10 wasn’t a #2 seed at worst, much less left out entirely. Miami is not a bubble team. They are in.

            As for Kentucky “finishing strong”, they have lost 7 straight and 10 out of 12. Different year, same Kentucky. Feast on bad OOC teams, get exposed in the SEC.

            If Miami hasn’t impressed you with series wins over Clemson and Va Tech, and single wins over UNC, FSU, Virginia, and Florida, then what has Kansas done? Houston? Coastal Carolina? Miami has more top 50 wins than those three teams combined. Sometimes it’s okay to cut your losses and admit an oversight, because there is no statistical defense for having those teams in over Miami.

            The South Alabama thing is unconscionable. They are in the hosting discussion. Being a #2 is absolute worst case scenario. Having them at #4 isn’t a difference of opinion, it is just plain incorrect. The location thing is an excuse that doesn’t exist in the real selection process. #4 seeds are shipped out due to location. #2 seeds get their #2 seed. All of the other projections managed to put them at #1 or #2 without running into those problems.

            Not trying to be mean with all of this, but if this is going to get published on a site that claims to cover college baseball, you should be prepared to defend your choices with real evidence, not “this is just what I think”. If that’s the case, someone can make picks based on their favorite colors and it would be just as credible.

          • http://collegebaseballdaily.com/ Brian Foley

            South Alabama is a weird team. They have a good series victory over Troy which should actually be in this projection but I am going to talk about USA here. They got that series win against Troy then go out two weeks later and get swept by FAU.

            I still think they have alot of work to do the rest of the year to solidify their spot in the tournament as they still have to Louisiana and Troy in conference series. They lose those two series and they will be out of the discussion for an at-large berth.

            Now onto Miami, Yes, they got a series victory over Clemson but Va Tech is their best series victory after that. As I have broke down for you, they are playing as of today two squads near 150 in RPI in weekend sets. If they drop two games to either of those teams, they are in serious trouble.

            If you are going to go after Kentucky’s OOC schedule, you have to say the same thing with Miami…They play one series against Florida (WHICH THEY LOST TWO OUT OF THREE) and the little sisters of the poor. A seventh place ACC squad that has a single series victory against a Top 25 team, doesn’t deserve a bid to the tourney. I don’t think they pick up any series victories over a Top 25 squad the rest of the year.

          • Alex

            Clemson is #13, Virginia Tech is #15. That’s two series wins over top 15 teams. If you were talking about top 25 in human polls, then I need to leave the site, because if you think the committee looks at any human polls, we have bigger issues to worry about than an April regional projection.

            Miami’s SOS is #2, Kentucky’s is #30. If you say that their OOC schedule is “little sisters of the poor”, then their conference schedule to date must be the toughest in the country. With that being the case, 10-11 thus far is perfectly understandable. But more importantly, Miami STILL has the edge on Kentucky in every single category. I can’t believe we’re still comparing the two. You don’t think #7 in the ACC deserves to get in? Then goodbye to #9 in the SEC. But for some reason I’m still having to point that out.

            Take a look at previous #7 ACC teams and tell me their history of getting in or not. Last year Georgia Tech was 12-18 in conference with an RPI around #25. They got a #2 seed. In 2011 NC State was ACC #7 with an RPI of #32. They got in. Like I said before, you guys and gals have to take a look at selection history if you’re going to do this.

          • http://collegebaseballdaily.com/ Brian Foley

            And the 9th place team in the SEC got in last season.

            Common opponent right now between Kentucky and Miami is Florida. Kentucky is 2-1 and Miami is 1-2.

          • Alex

            Common opponent? Seriously? This isn’t a tie-breaker. Miami has the edge in EVERY CATEGORY that the committee looks at. Mind-numbing.

            Even funnier, though, is that YOU point out that #9 out of 12 SEC teams in 2012 got in, but your original claim was that #7 out of 12 teams doesn’t deserve to get in this year. It’s almost like you forgot your point.

          • Alex

            By the way, re: “little sisters of the poor”, Kentucky has nine opponents in the 200+ range. Miami has zero.

          • http://collegebaseballdaily.com/ Brian Foley

            I guess those games against non-D-1 teams don’t count in your head.

            Scheduling teams like Columbia and Milwaukee is an absolute joke. Both of those teams will be over 175 after this weekend in RPI.

          • Alex

            They don’t count for anything, champ. Look at the NCAA’s RPI report. Those wins aren’t included. You should know that, just like you should know that “wins against top 25 in human polls” is a non-existant category.

            UW-Milwaukee and Columbia are a joke, but you’re defending a team that scheduled Akron, Murray State, Eastern Kentucky, Ohio, and Cincinnati? Is this getting personal for you? I’ve never seen someone so obviously biased. Have you even looked at Kentucky’s schedule?

            Have you stopped for one second to compare the UM and UK resumes using the criteria that the committee uses? It is intellectually dishonest for you to ignore all of that data and continue arguing a losing argument.

          • http://collegebaseballdaily.com/ Brian Foley

            I could care less about Kentucky. I believe and I think Ginger feels the same that Kentucky wins one of their two big series they have left this season against Vanderbilt or Ole Miss which would blow anything that Miami has done all season out of the water. Miami’s best series victory is over VT or Clemson depending on which you think.

            Remember, this is a projection for what GINGER thinks will happen this year. I actually agree with her…

            You will probably argue that the ACC is better then the SEC too…SEC is now a 14 team conference and is much deeper then they used to be.

            We all know that Miami will fall flat on their face like they have done every season since 2008….

          • Alex

            There it is. I knew the Miami shot was coming. People don’t hate losing programs, so I’m flattered. That was your only possible reaction to all of the facts you can’t defend. Still waiting on any criteria at all that has Kentucky ahead of Miami.

            This takes the cake, though. On April 4th, you had Miami as a #1 seed and Kentucky as a #3 seed. Since then, Miami has gone 8-4, Kentucky has gone 2-10(!). The result? Miami drops out of the tournament, and Kentucky moves UP to a #2 seed. Classic. Can’t make that up. At 5-7 Miami was a host. At 10-11 and a series win over #13, they drop out of the tournament. That whole thing is so stupid and backwards that I’m starting to believe this is a troll site.

            Like when you said “this is how it would look if the tournament started today”, then included a team with a losing record. Just very amateurish all around.

          • http://collegebaseballdaily.com/ Brian Foley

            Should be noted Miami lost 1-0 to a previously WINLESS ACC squad on Friday.

          • Alex

            As for which conference is stronger, the committee’s report is going to have the ACC as the #1 conference and the SEC as the #2 conference. Yet another detail that any credible journalist would look up before shooting off about what I will probably argue.

          • http://www.facebook.com/mitchell.r.jackson.1 Mitchell Ray Jackson

            Chances are really good that UK gets swept in Oxford this weekend, starting tonight. I say that to say that Ole Miss will be in the conversation to host a regional by this time next week.

  • Alex

    Come on folks. Florida Gulf Coast gets an at-large bid with an RPI of 55, but Miami gets left out with an RPI of 11? That’s not credible writing.

  • Shane

    No way Arkansas hosts with an RPI in the 60′s unless they finish 10-2 in their last 12 SEC games.

  • http://twitter.com/SoBayWildcat South BayWildcat

    Don’t count out LMU with their pitching. They took 2 of 3 from U
    SD, Gonzaga and USF.

  • http://twitter.com/SoBayWildcat South BayWildcat

    Too much love given to the ACC for a conference that has never won a championship!

    • http://collegebaseballdaily.com/ Brian Foley

      Incorrect…Wake was the last national champion in 1955 from the conference.
      Miami including their independent days has 23 College World Series appearances, winning four national championships (1982, 1985, 1999, 2001) and advancing to the NCAA regionals a record 40 consecutive years.

      Brian Foley
      Editor of College Baseball Daily
      Twitter: @BFoley82|@CB_Daily

      • http://twitter.com/SoBayWildcat South BayWildcat

        Sorry, you are correct. The ACC has won 1 NCAA championship in 1955. Miami was not in the ACC when they won and winning in 1955 is irrelevant. That is like saying USC baseball is relevant because they have won 12 championships. The ACC has won 1 championship and since 1955 has had 4 teams in the championship game, Georgia Tech in 1994, FSU in 1999 and North Carolina in 2006 and 2007.

        • Alex

          Why is this such a hard concept to grasp. Conferences don’t win championships. Teams do. The ACC has a four time national champion. If LSU went to the Big 12, would you take their titles away? Stupid topic.

          • http://twitter.com/SoBayWildcat South BayWildcat

            My point is that teams from the ACC are overrated. Every year the ACC teams have an unbelievable RPI and don’t win or even make the championship game. If the RPI is an indication of the strength of their schedule and performance against top teams then the ACC should be killing it in the tournament. As of today 8 teams in the ACC are in the top 25 according to their RPI. The SEC has 6 and the PAC 12 has 4. Let’s see what happens in the tournament. My bet is that a team from the SEC and PAC 12 win again or Fullerton.

          • Alex

            Where should UNC, Virginia, and Florida State be ranked, and what is your evidence for those rankings. Thanks in advance.

  • Mattpete31

    Seriously South Alabama gets a 4 seed. Rpri of 13. Leading the 5th best conference according to warren Nolan. Not to mention North Florida gets a 3 seed. A team South Al best 2 out of 3. Every other site has them as a 2 seed. Do more research

  • jimmy

    Nebraska-Omaha (Previous: South Dakota State Univ – SDSU ) AS winner in Summit conference ? , with respect here – I think you have it wrong here .

    • http://collegebaseballdaily.com/ Brian Foley

      I dont believe Omaha is eligible yet…