NCAA Regional Projections (May 14th)

– May 14, 2009Posted in: 2009 CWS, 2009 NCAA Tourney, CBD Column

This week’s regional projections from The College Baseball Blog have a new team in the top national seed spot. The LSU Tigers take over the number one national seed. The Tigers are currently the leaders in the SEC and have won eight of their last ten games.

Texas jumps into the number two position after a weekend series victory over rival Texas A&M. The Longhorns have locked up the Big 12 regular season championship with a 17-9-1 conference finish. The remaining national seeds, in order, are UC Irvine, North Carolina, Cal State Fullerton, Arizona State, Georgia Tech, and Rice.

Oklahoma and Virginia join the regional hosts this week. The Sooners took two of three games from Oklahoma State in the Bedlam Series last weekend, and the Cavaliers have one of the best records in college baseball, currently possessing a 38-10 overall record.

Baton Rouge (LA) Regional

1. LSU (1) *

2. Ohio State

3. Troy

4. Mississippi Valley State *

Charlottesville (VA) Regional

1. Virginia

2. East Carolina

3. George Mason *

4. Indiana State *

Austin (TX) Regional

1. Texas (2) *

2. South Carolina

3. Eastern Illinois *

4. Dartmouth *

Clemson (SC) Regional

1. Clemson

2. Alabama

3. Western Kentucky *

4. Dayton *

Irvine (CA) Regional

1. UC Irvine (3) *

2. Oregon State

3. Hawaii

4. Manhattan *

Fayetteville (AR) Regional

1. Arkansas

2. Kansas State

3. Washington State

4. Jacksonville *

Chapel Hill (NC) Regional

1. North Carolina (4)

2. Coastal Carolina *

3. Middle Tennessee State

4. Binghamton *

Oxford (MS) Regional

1. Ole Miss

2. Elon *

3. Illinois

4. Rhode Island

Fullerton (CA) Regional

1. Cal State Fullerton (5)

2. San Diego State

3. Gonzaga *

4. San Jose State *

Norman (OK) Regional

1. Oklahoma

2. Minnesota *

3. Vanderbilt

4. Oral Roberts *

Tempe (AZ) Regional

1. Arizona State (6) *

2. Missouri

3. Cal Poly

4. Sacred Heart *

Tallahassee (FL) Regional

1. Florida State *

2. Georgia

3. College of Charleston

4. Bethune-Cookman *

Atlanta (GA) Regional

1. Georgia Tech (7)

2. Louisville

3. Georgia Southern

4. Army *

Gainesville (FL) Regional

1. Florida

2. Miami (FL)

3. Kansas

4. South Florida *

Houston (TX) Regional

1. Rice (8) *

2. Texas State *

3. Baylor

4. Illinois-Chicago *

College Station (TX) Regional

1. Texas A&M

2. TCU *

3. Boston College

4. Bowling Green State *

Last five in: Rhode Island, Washington State, Troy, Boston College, Hawaii

First ten out: Dallas Baptist, Southeastern Louisiana, Western Carolina, UC Riverside, San Diego, Florida International, Tulane, BYU, UNC Wilmington, Kentucky

* denotes auto-bid

(#) denotes national seed

Projections through Tuesday, May 12.

Tags: 2009 CWS, 2009 NCAA Tourney, 2009 Regional Projections, CBD Column

About Colin Weber

DaddyBo

You may want to re-think your Atlanta projection…Bucknell is an impossibility…just sayin’…(they lost out in the Patriot League playoffs this past weekend)
Colin Weber

It’s fixed. I went straight off the standings, not even realizing the conference tournament had started.

Thanks for pointing it out.
cougar12

how do you see wash st getting in???
dave0001

the Cougs get in by finishing second in the Pac 10 and taking the OSU series this weekend. Arizona’s win over the UW eliminates the Huskies from contention. WSU played one of the toughest schedules in the nation and did really well.
tigerterrace

What I love is that nobody will give Auburn even the slightest chance of getting in. Even by placing them in the last ten out. Depending on who you look at Auburn is somewhere between 28-32 in RPI. Did we have the season that we wanted? No. But we also played a super tough schedule. #7 Also managed to beat several teams that are listed in your projections. Auburn’s overall record is 31-25, but they also played 33 games against the RPI Top 50. Several teams that you have getting at-large bids have barely made a dent in playing any Top 50 teams and are rewarded for having a slightly better record.

According to your latest projections, Auburn has wins over Troy(2), Bama(3), Western Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina, Elon, Vandy(2), Georgia Southern, and FSU.

You want to hang Auburn out to dry for not being in the SEC tourney, but look at the tourney it is riddled with Top 25 teams.
Colin Weber

Auburn was 11-19 in conference (tied for 10th). That’s not going to cut it.

They’d have a shot if they could’ve finished 9th in the conference and only a few games under .500 in league play, but a team that has a .367 winning percentage in their conference does NOT deserve to be in the NCAA tournament.
tigerterrace

My point is that everyone gets so caught up in the conference record. Yes, Auburn went 11-19, which included wins over Vandy, Bama, Florida, South Carolina. All teams that are projected in. Out of Conference, Auburn has beaten several others projected in. You can leave a team like Auburn out if you want because of confernce record, but you let in a lot of teams with at large bids like that have played very few Top RPI teams. I’m sure Auburn would have had a lot better record if we didn’t have to play the number 7 schedule. Auburn has more wins against the Top 50 than other teams eve nattempted to play. If you want to let Western Kentucky in, they have played 5 teams in the Top 50.
tigerterrace

I use this as a comparison. You have Washington State getting in.

Wash St 28-23 RPI 52 SOS 27
Auburn 31-25 RPI 28 SOS 7

Yeah that seems right Washington St has won 5 more than they lost. (Auburn +6) Washington St RPI 52 (Auburn 24 spots higher) SOS Auburn 20 spots higher.
Colin Weber

You can throw out RPI and SOS comparisons all day, and it will get you nowhere. You can’t downplay Auburn’s terrible conference record. You just can’t overlook it.

Washington State finished 2nd in the Pac 10 and will be getting an at-large bid. I’m sorry if you can’t see why the #2 team from a conference would deserve a bid over the #9 team from another conference. The RPI and SOS are not the only things looked at in the selection process.
tigerterrace

So basically you’re not interested in getting the best 64 teams into the tournament or at least the best 30 at-large.
Colin Weber

You’re relying on an imperfect formula (the RPI) to make your argument that Auburn is one of the 34 best teams deserving an at-large bid. They’re not. If you can’t make your conference tournament then you don’t deserve to play in the NCAA tournament.
jig19

So you’re punishing Auburn for playing in the premier conference in America? Yes, they did go 11-19 in the SEC. Yes, they didn’t make the SEC Tournament. Many times recently, the SEC has sent 9 teams to the regionals. And if you ask me Auburn has the edge over Kentucky in RPI, SOS, and overall better record.

If a team can make their conference tournament and not a regional (Duke, Texas Tech, Purdue, Michigan State, Indiana, Tulane, Central Florida, Marshall, etc.) then why can’t that open up a spot for an Auburn or Kentucky?
lsucwsx5

So basically, Colin, you’re saying that in 2007, Mississippi State, who didn’t make their conference tournament, & was selected to the field of 64 over 3 teams that did make the conference tournament, & hosted a super-regional, & beat Clemson in their super-regional, & advanced to the College World Series, didn’t deserve to be there..
tigerterrace

There is a precedence for this in the past. Auburn, Miss ST and UF have all made the NCAA tournament without making the SEC Tournament. I wish the SEC would let all twelve in. That way this wasn’t an issue or stigma. The idea should be to get the best teams in. The 33 games that Auburn played against the Top 50 was brutal, but Auburn went 12-21. Yes, 21 of Auburn’s 25 loses came against the Top teams. I have maintained all along that being 9th or 10th in the SEC still places you in the Top 30 at-large teams. A lot of the teams that are getting proped up have 4 or 5 wins against the Top 50 and a lot against 100-300.

I don’t think the SunBelt should be a three bid league. Middle Tenn and WKU should go, but Troy has no business in. If Troy wins their tournament then WKU stays home sorry. Auburn beat Troy twice and WKU once. Both of these teams are ranked below Auburn in RPI.

I picked out Washington State because they were the lowest of the at-large projections, but I could make equal cases against Kansas, Illinois, Baylor, COC, Oregon State, and San Jose St.
Colin Weber

No team should be punished for the conference they play in. They should be punished for their bad performance in conference play, and only winning 1/3 of your conference games should not be rewarded with post-season play. I’m sorry if you do not agree. I understand they played a lot of games against the top 50, but that’s the competition they will be playing in the NCAA tournament.

lsucwsx5,

You might want to get your facts straight. In 2007, Mississippi State was 15-13 in the SEC which placed them 4th in conference.
tigerterrace

Not according to you because you have Washington St, Kansas, Jacksonville, Gonzaga, Troy, College of Charleston, Illinios and San Jose St. All of these teams are outside of the Top 50. I would like Auburn’s chances against most of the #2 seeds also, the lone exception might be San Diego St with Strausberg.