College World Series Betting: Zero-in on the Blue Bloods

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The NCAA is less than two weeks away from setting the 64-team field making up the 2016 College World Series, as the regular season wraps-up. Top online sportsbooks such as Heritage Sports, BETDSI, Bookmaker, and BetOnline will offer adjusted futures odds for the championship and regional winners when the brackets are finalized, and bettors need to look ahead now in order to uncover the most bang for their buck.

For those unfamiliar with the World Series format, it is set up much like the popular D1 basketball tournament, but with a few quirks. The first round is the Regionals. Made up of 16 different host sites, four teams duke it out in a double-elimination format with the winner advancing to the Super Regionals. Akin to the Sweet 16 in March Madness, matchups here are determined by a best-of-three series with the winners making the trip to Omaha. The eight teams comprising the World Series field face a double-elimination campaign with the final championship series another race to two wins. Books will adjust futures prices before each round, as well as post individual game props and odds on a daily basis.

 

In our last write-up, we advised favoring pitching with recent rule changes to bats and pace of play making small ball the norm in college baseball. Here, we want to zero-in on historically good programs and dominant conferences. Just like in college basketball where teams like Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, Kansas, etc. are contenders to make a title run every year, many blue bloods will flex their muscle in an effort to win it all in Nebraska.

 

Firstly, two conferences have dominated the World Series: the Pac-12 and SEC. Together, they have won 27 titles, including eight of the last 10 years. Below, you will find the number of World Series championships per conference. Take note, some teams have changed leagues over the years, and a few conferences listed are now defunct.

 

Rank	Conference	Titles
1	Pac-12	17
2	Southeastern (SEC)	10
3	Big Ten	6
3	PCC-CIBA	6
5	Independents	5
5	Western Athletic (WAC*)	5
7	Big Eight	4
7	Big West (BWC)	4
7	Southwest	4
10	Atlantic Coast (ACC)	2
10	Big 12	2
10	SCBA	2
10	Western Athletic (WAC**)	2
13	Missouri Valley (MVC)	1
13	West Coast (WCC)	1

 

Perplexing is that the ACC has won just two titles ever. Virginia’s win last season was the first since Wake Forest claimed victory in 1955. This, despite the “basketball” conference comprising nearly 25 percent of teams representing the final eight teams in Omaha over the last 10 years. Powerhouse programs like UNC, Clemson, and Florida State (joined ACC in 2004) each own a losing record in the tournament historically. Whether it is a talent gap, bad hex, or something else, bettors may want to avoid Atlantic Coast teams in June.

 

Blue blood programs typically take a lot of money in the betting market, but bettors can find value on those that may have had a hiccup or two in the regular season. Here is a list showing the top 10 programs with the best winning percentage in the World Series:

 

School	CWS Winning %	Appearances	Wins Per Appearance
Southern California	0.74	21	3.52
Arizona State	0.616	22	2.77
South Carolina	0.615	11	2.91
LSU	0.6	17	2.12
Texas	0.59	35	2.43
Arizona	0.584	16	2.38
Stanford	0.579	16	2.5
Miami (FL)	0.552	24	2
Cal State Fullerton	0.54	17	2
Oklahoma State	0.514	19	2

 

Some of these schools had their time in earlier decades, like Southern California (21-24) who has not made a Cornhusker appearance since 2001, but most are perennial contender’s year in and year out. South Carolina (36-11), LSU (31-16), Arizona (31-16), Miami (35-9) and Oklahoma State (30-15) each rank in the top 25 as of publication. Two value teams to keep and eye on are Arizona State (28-16) and Cal State Fullerton (30-16). Each sit just outside of the top 30, and can matchup with any of the nation’s best. These 10 schools have won 40 World Series combined.
Similar to the mid-major surge in college basketball in recent years, expect a couple of “little” teams to make a run in June à la Butler, VCU, Davidson, and George Mason. But in the end, lean on the “big” guys to get the job done.