Home 2016 Regional Projections 2016 NCAA Baseball Regional Projections (April 26th)

2016 NCAA Baseball Regional Projections (April 26th)

by Brian Foley
8 comments
Kyle Cortopassi celebrates after scoring tying run in the 5th. Photo by David Cohen, BHEphotos

Kyle Cortopassi celebrates after scoring tying run in the 5th. Photo by David Cohen, BHEphotos

College Baseball Daily continues our countdown to the start of the 2016 NCAA Tournament with our weekly Regional Projections. These are done as if the teams finished the season on Monday. As has been the case this year, there is a major disparity towards the south schools due to the weak west coast baseball this season. You can check out the full brackets below. 

1. Florida (1)
2. Georgia Tech
3. Cal Poly *
4. Binghamton *
1. North Carolina
2. UNC-Wilmington *
3. UNC-Greensboro *
4. Seattle
1. NC State (8)
2. Creighton *
3. Bryant *
4. Navy *
1. Coastal Carolina *
2. Virginia
3. Kentucky
4. Oral Roberts *
1. Texas A&M (4)
2. TCU
3. Dallas Baptist *
4. Tulane
1. Texas Tech *
2. Rice
3. Pittsburgh
4. Gonzaga *
1. Ole Miss (5)
2. Wake Forest
3. SE Missouri State *
4. Cincinnati *
1. Louisiana-Lafayette
2. Georgia
3. New Orleans
4. Alabama State *
1. South Carolina (3) *
2. East Carolina
3. VCU *
4. Fairfield *
1. Clemson
2. Michigan
3. Alabama
4. Kennesaw State *
1. Florida State (6) *
2. Minnesota
3. Northwestern State
4. Florida A&M*
1. LSU
2. Oklahoma State
3. Southeastern Louisiana *
4. Princeton *
1. Miami (FL) (7)
2. Florida Atlantic
3. Kent State *
4. Washington *
1. Mississippi State
2. Southern Miss *
3. South Alabama * 
4. BYU
1. Louisville (2)
2. Vanderbilt
3. Michigan State *
4. Cal
1. UC Santa Barbara
2. Arizona
3. New Mexico *
4. Wright State *

 

Conference Projected Champ
America East Binghamton
American Athletic Conference Cincinnati
Atlantic 10 VCU
ACC Florida State
Atlantic Sun Kennesaw State
Big 10 Michigan State
Big 12 Texas Tech
Big East Creighton
Big South Coastal Carolina
Big West Cal Poly
CAA UNC-Wilmington
Conference USA Southern Miss
Horizon League Wright State
Ivy League Princeton
MAAC Fairfield
MAC Kent State
MEAC Florida A&M
Missouri Valley Dallas Baptist
Mountain West New Mexico
Northeast Conference Bryant
Ohio Valley Conference Southeast Missouri
Pac-12 Washington
Patriot League Navy
SEC South Carolina
Southern Conference UNC-Greensboro
Southland Conference Southeastern LA
SWAC Alabama State
Summit League Oral Roberts
Sun Belt South Alabama
West Coast Conference Gonzaga
WAC Seattle U.

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8 comments

eight26 April 27, 2016 - 9:11 pm

Fullerton has the number one pitching staff in the country and a 23 year post season streak. But you don’t have them in the field. Pretty sketchy.

Brian Foley April 27, 2016 - 9:29 pm

Neither one of those things matter. They are a team right now in need of quality wins and beating UCLA this year isn’t a quality win.

eight26 April 27, 2016 - 9:37 pm

Are you not counting their road series win over media darling du jour Texas Tech?

The committe would leave the best staff in the country out of the field? C’mon, man.

Brian Foley April 27, 2016 - 10:08 pm

And Houston has the second best staff in the country, they are one of the worst offensive teams I have seen in years.

eight26 April 28, 2016 - 1:18 am

The Cougar staff’s on base % and slugging % allowed seem to play up a bit more than Fullerton’s because the Cougars have a bit softer schedule. But they have a case for being the top staff right now too.

Given that obp is about 58% of offense and slg is about 42%, and in reference to a team’s obp and slg amidst all teams’ obp and slg, it’s possible to put standard indexes on how well a team prevents and produces runs. The average of the two indexes is an index of how well the team plays.

Fullerton’s offense is about 0.54 standard deviations below average in obp and slg. That’s works out to be the 29th percentile. Ouch. But there are 87 theoretically worse offenses.

Their defense index is 2.695 standard deviations above average, meaning they allow opponents 2.7 deviations below average offense. That’s the 99.7th percentile. There is only one team expected to be found at this distance from the mean.

When defense and offense are averaged, Fullerton is observed to play at 1.07 stand deviations above average which is the 85.9th percentile. There are 295 teams, so Fullerton is the 42nd ranked team, since 295*(1-0.859)= 41.65. Suppose a rational correction of every team’s index due to strength of schedule, in this way Fullerton is plausibly ranked near 22.

But if they lose any of the remaining series, then their goose is cooked.

Ryan Behmanesh April 28, 2016 - 9:30 am

Clemson as a host over TCU certainly seems like a pick made solely based off of RPI. Any explanations? Clemson clearly has the edge with quality wins but their .650 win% has them on pace to win less than 40 games. I couldn’t see them as a host with a 38-21(ish) record, especially since there’s plenty of hosts in that geographical region (SC, NC, NCST, Coastal).

randy c April 28, 2016 - 6:19 pm

A big Louisville fan here….we need to finish strong and hope we can get some better clubs to show up to Jim Patterson this year other than a cluster of BORING MIDWEST teams with no fanbase to our Regional. We need a few DIRTY SOUTH CLUBS in the mix to show up this year and get this place ROCKIN again…GO CARDS!!!!

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