11regionalprojections_lg

2011 NCAA Baseball Regional Projections (May 18th)

College Baseball Daily continues our weekly countdown to the release of the 2011 NCAA Baseball Regional Brackets. The brackets are done as if the NCAA Tournament was set to begin today. The projections are done through games played on Tuesday. You can check out the full bracket below which is our best estimate if the tournament started today.

1. (1) Virginia * 

2. UCONN*

3. Cal

4. Alcorn State*

1. Southern Miss* 

2. Clemson

3. Ole Miss

4. Coastal Carolina*

1. (8) Texas 

2. Texas State*

3. UCLA

4. Princeton*

1. TCU* 

2. Arkansas

3. Baylor

4. Manhattan*

1. (4) Florida 

2. Miami (FL)

3. Jacksonville

4. Bethune-Cookman*

1. Georgia Tech 

2. Mississippi State

3. Troy*

4. Navy*

1. (5) Vanderbilt * 

2. Arizona

3. East Tennessee State

4. Austin Peay*

1. Oklahoma 

2. Auburn

3. Creighton*

4. Wright State*

1. (3) Oregon State* 

2. Fresno State

3. Alabama

4. San Francisco*

1. Cal State Fullerton* 

2. Stanford

3. Gonzaga

4. Stony Brook*

1. (6) Florida State 

2. Stetson*

3. FAU

4. Monmouth*

1. Arizona State 

2. UCF

3. UC-Irvine

4. Hawaii*

1. (7) Texas A&M * 

2. FIU

3. SE Louisiana

4. South Dakota State*

1. Rice 

2. Oklahoma State

3. Kent State*

4. Michigan State*

1. (2) South Carolina 

2. Elon*

3. NC State

4. Charlotte*

1. North Carolina 

2. East Carolina

3. Georgia

4. James Madison*

Last Five In
FAU
Georgia
Jacksonville
SE Louisiana
UCLA

Next Five Out
LSU
College of Charleston
Texas Tech
St. John’s
Kansas State

  • Guest

    when are you going to attach hosts to these regional predictions?

    • eagle04

      u00a0Is this a serious question?u00a0

      • Guest

        u00a0yes, because I am hoping for another Norwich, Conn. Regional

    • eagle04

      u00a0Is this a serious question?u00a0

    • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

      All the 1 seeds this year are hosting…I would be stunned to see a one seed like FSU shipped out like last season. I believe UConn put in a bid and that couldu00a0possiblyu00a0be the only non one seed to host but I don’t believe they deserve it. u00a0

  • Anonymous

    Brian.u00a0 Do you feel that Elon is a lock now even if they do not win their conf tourny?u00a0 They have a good RPI with a pretty good SOS.u00a0 Just wanted to hear your thoughts about them? Thanks

    • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

      u00a0A “lock” right now is a certainty but pretty close to it. I think they at least win two out of three this weekend and as long as they don’t flame out of the Southern Conference Tourney, they will be in the NCAA Tourney.u00a0

  • TIHNBB

    u00a0Sacred Heart is leading the NEC in most categories. They also beat mississippi state, SE Louisiana (2), and almost beat LSU. It was 1-1 going into the 8th inning. This was all in the begging of the season, now they are even better. They are going to be a sleeper in this tournament.

    • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

      True but Monmouth won the regular season title and Sacred Heart isn’t going to get an at-large berth this season. I do have credentials for the Northeast Conference Tourney and might make an appearance down there this season. u00a0

  • Sportsdrdbu

    How do you have DBU in last week and now out this week?

    • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

      Playing against Alcorn State doesn’t help the RPI at all plus losing to a bubble team Baylor isn’t good. They are 70th now while playing the 188th best schedule in the country. Also, they are 9-8 against the Top 100.u00a0

  • Sportsdrdbu

    How do you have DBU in last week and now out this week?

  • Eagle04

    u00a0How do you have Ole Miss in as a 3 seed? They aren’t even in line to make their conference tournament.

    • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

      Accordingu00a0to Chuck Dunlap of the SEC,u00a0nnFive times since 2003, a SEC team who did not advance to Hoover received a NCAA bid. Never more than one in same year.

  • Eagle04

    u00a0How do you have Ole Miss in as a 3 seed? They aren’t even in line to make their conference tournament.

  • Anonymous

    u00a0Two WAC teams in the Oregon St Regional?

    • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

      We corrected it…the Oregon State Regional is a mess! u00a0

  • Jmcglone

    u00a0Doesn’t Stetson deserve to host ahead of TCU, they do have a better RPI, have dominated a better conference than TCU and swept the 4th best team, Georgia, in the almighty SEC?u00a0 And doesn’t Charlotte deserve a little better placement than facing the number 2 team in the tournament in Columbia Regional, I mean you are in effect calling them the second worst team in the tournament, with a top 100 RPI and a top 5 ERA in the country.

    • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

      We are NOT calling Charlotte the second worst team in the tournament. The NCAA puts teams in the closest regional possible without havingu00a0conferenceu00a0matchups. Thus the reason why we put Charlotte in Columbia. The only other option is putting then at UNC.u00a0

    • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

      Stetson has a worse record against the Top 50 then TCU. Stetson is 8-6 while TCU is 10-5.u00a0nnThe Hatters have lost four out of their last six games including a terrible loss to Lipscomb this past weekend.u00a0

  • Tommy Todd

    I thought that Arizona St. was on probation and couldn’t go to the NCAA this year. What happened? Tommynu00a0

    • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

      ASU is onu00a0probationu00a0and have a one year postseason ban. They had a hearing on Monday in Dallas to have their appeal heard. It is not likely that the decision will be made until after the brackets are announced so they get in under that and would serve the ban in 2012 season.u00a0nnWe detailed the case earlier this week by clicking the link below.u00a0nnhttp://www.collegebaseballdaily.com/2011/05/16/arizona-state-makes-appeal-to-ncaa/

  • Jmcglone

    Brian, one more question, doesn’t Stetson have better numbers than TCU?u00a0 And more deserving to host than TCU?

    • tcuguy

      Stetson is no where on the level that TCU is on. Stetson is good, but TCU is a better team and deserve to host. Remember, history and ability to fill seats helps a lot. Stetson’s stadium holds around 2500-3000 fans while TCU holds between 4500 permanent seats and up to 7000 including GA and standing room only. Not to mention, we fill the stadium for regionals. Also, Stetson has played Georgia (opening weekend) and Florida State (one game loss). That is honestly not more deserving. TCU is 10-4 against the Big 12 and has played a tougher schedule. in a conference that is better than Stetson’s.u00a0

  • LSU

    how is Ole Miss in the tournament over LSU?u00a0 Ole Miss will probably lose 2/3 @ Arkansas this weekend and not make the tournament. LSU will prob lose 2/3 as well @ Miss. State. LSU beat Ole Miss 2/3 this season head to head and neither will make the SEC tourney. Georgia is also currently 27-26 and host Vanderbilt this weekend, so it’s highly likely they will end up with a losing record unless they win 2 in Hoover.

    • Pater47

      u00a0I think LSU will be in based on RPI. Normally I would say Ole Miss isn’t going to make the cut this year, but if I’m not mistaken, Georgia has to win two in the SEC tournament to be regional eligible. If they don’t pull it off, I think Ole Miss slides in there. Ole Miss’ RPI isn’t helping their cause.

      • Pater47

        u00a0I correct myself. Since the SEC Tournament is a double elimination, Georgia has to win THREE in the tournament to be regional eligible. That ain’t gonna happen.

        • What up Squid

          yea agreed.u00a0 UGA isnt gonna win 3 games in that loaded tourney

  • guest

    two WAC teams making it? no shot. Gonzagas bubble has to be busted after two mid week losses to a poor rpi Oregonu00a0

    • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

      Hawaii is winning the WAC and Fresno State’s RPI is pretty good!rnSent on the Sprintu00ae Now Network from my BlackBerryu00ae

  • UTBASEBALL

    u00a0Texas has a big series with A&M this weekend, what are you thoughts? u00a0If Texas loses the series do they still host regional and super?

    • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

      William Knox will be in attendance for Friday and Saturday games in Austin while having full reports from both of them. u00a0

  • TexasHorns

    I am still trying to figure out why you have considered Texas the 8 seed and they have relatively the same records as Oregon State, Florida State, and Florida.u00a0 Texas is rank 11 in RPI while Oregon State is rank 20 and you have them at 3. nnNot really understanding your logic here.u00a0 Any chance a series win over A&M change your tune.

    • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

      Texas is u00a011-6 against the Top 50u00a0nOregon State is 13-5 against the Top 50nFSU has a SOS of fourth and are 16-10 against the Top 50.u00a0

      • UTBASEBALL

        I just don’t get why, you will not seed them hire than 8. u00a0In all of the other poles (baseball America, coaches Pole etc) they have stayed in the top 15 all season, So what is the problem? u00a0How is Oregon seeded 3 with and RPI of 20 and Texas gets a 8 Seed with an RPI of 11?u00a0

  • knightsfan

    How do you have UCF going out west?u00a0 Shouldn’t htey be a #2 seed in a Florida regional/u00a0

    • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

      Stetson and Miami are the 2 seeds…someone has to be shippedrnSent on the Sprintu00ae Now Network from my BlackBerryu00ae

  • Dbreland

    How is it that Auburn is playing in the Norman, OK regional? If Arkansas doesn’t host, shouldn’t they be placed in the Norman regional instead of Auburn?u00a0

  • Strike771377

    What about Dallas Baptist??u00a0 Last I heard, we were 48 in RPI… Wouldn’t that plus some good wins against top 50′s deserve us a spot in a regional??

    • Rwgilbreath37

      Agreed totally.u00a0 DBU has beat several top 20 teams.u00a0

  • Crhenley

    u00a0Can UNCG get some respect…2/3 from Samford, 2/3 from Elon, 2/3 form College of Charleston, Sweep ofu00a0Georgia Southern all coming at a time when these teams were way higher in the RPI and 82 in the nation.

    • What up Squid

      Ok good for UNCG.u00a0 Who do they play midweek?u00a0 Thats the reason they have a bad RPI and will have to win the tourny to get in.u00a0 Not anyones fault but Gaski who schedules that joke non conference schedule.u00a0 The numbers do not lie.u00a0 But on the other hand.u00a0 Noone wants to p-lay UNCG in the tourny the way they are playing right now.u00a0 Anytime you get a sweep without allowing a run in Woffords small park that is doing something. u00a0

      • Crhenley

        we beat St. Johns midweek when they were ranked #23u00a0

        • What up Squid

          congrats.u00a0 Gotta play more than one tough midweek game.u00a0 Duke does not count

  • GoGophers

    u00a0LSU should not be in the tournament…period. u00a0They have won 6 road games all season. u00a06!! u00a0That is ridiculous. u00a0No way should that resume be rewarded with an invite. u00a0I’m from Big Ten country. u00a0Purdue is 35-18, has won 20 road games, and may finish as high as tied for 2nd in the conference. u00a0They won’t even get considered for an at large. u00a0Nothing against LSU personally. u00a0I had a great time down at Alex Box when my Gophers lost to the Tigers in the Regional final in ’09. u00a0They just don’t deserve to dance this year. u00a0If the NCAA has any self respect they will give someone else a chance this time around. u00a0

    • What up Squid

      yea but the Big 10 is a weak conference this year.u00a0 Tied for second just isnt good enough.u00a0 Its all about RPI and quality wins.u00a0 Road wins are overrated

      • GoGophers

        Yeah right, road wins are overrated. u00a0Here is some quick research I did on games played before conference play began. u00a0Home games: ACC->100; Big 12->127; Pac 10->106; SEC->158; Big 10->24!!! u00a0 u00a0 u00a0 Road/Neutral games: ACC->52; Big 12->54; Pac 10->93; SEC->47; Big 10->184!!! u00a0 u00a0 u00a0Road/Neutral game records: ACC->27 wins, 25 losses; Big 12->29W 25L; Pac 10->43W 50L; SEC-27W 20L; Big 10->95W 89L. u00a0 Since road wins are overrated you’d think the SEC would have a dramatically better record than other conferences, especially the “lowly” Big 10, when playing on the road. u00a0I guess not. u00a0Maybe they can get 10 teams in this year to the single Big 10 team. u00a0That’s only fair, right? u00a0Very small sample but Big 10 went 3-2 versus SEC this year. u00a0Yep, all games were at SEC schools. u00a0Must be nice to have the deck so stacked in your favor. u00a0Believe me, I know you have a darn good conference. u00a0But 8-10 bids versus 1….no way.

        • Radams4

          You cant even compare the 2 conferences.u00a0 SEC teams tend to slip up some mid week games because they rest certain guys and dont use their best arms out of the pen.u00a0 And i have seen where a smaller school will throw their wknd guys at the big boys and try to steal a game b/c it makes them feel good.

          • GoGophers

            Midweek games are meaningless, I agree. u00a0They shouldn’t be considered when figuring RPI in my opinion for the reasons you just gave. u00a0Weekend series tell a lot more than midweek games when evaluating teams.nu00a0u00a0Here are the non conference road/neutral wins versus probable NCAA tournament teams for games played on the weekend for the SEC conference:u00a0Georgia 6-2 over UCLA @ Dodgertown Classic. u00a0That is it!u00a0u00a0Here are the results of the other non conference road/neutral games played on the weekend for the ENTIRE conference versus probable NCAA tournament teams:u00a0u00a0Alabama-> losses to SE Louisiana (6-2) and Central Florida (12-4) in the Mobile Classic;u00a0Georgia-> 3 losses at Stetson (6-3;7-2;8-4);u00a0Kentucky-> lost to Rice (8-7) in the Houston College Classic;South Carolina-> lost atu00a0Clemson (10-5).Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi St., Tennessee, and Vandy->0 non conference road games versus tourney teams….Nice.No reason to question things or compare the conferences? u00a0The SEC should just automatically get their 7, 8, 9, or 10 bids every year I guess.u00a0u00a0In reality, there are 3 very good teams in the SEC this year. u00a0The rest of the conference is very average. u00a0Give some other teams a chance for once. u00a0If not another Big 10 school, how about Charlotte (if they don’t win the A10), Stony Brook, Mercer, Eastern Michigan, Illinois St., UNC Greensboro, or Hawaii? u00a0 u00a0u00a0u00a0u00a0 u00a0

          • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

            LSU did beat Sacred Heart and Princeton this year who will get in!rnSent on the Sprintu00ae Now Network from my BlackBerryu00ae

          • GoGophers

            Don’t forget about their win over Alcorn State! u00a0I swear if LSU manages to get in and I was on the committee, winning the head to heads over Sacred Heart (1 game) and Princeton (2 wins, 1 loss) probably gets them seeded ahead of the Pioneers. Though I would have to think about it and I’m only half kidding! u00a0nnnSacred Heart: 2 wins at SE Louisiana; 1 win at Connecticut; 1 win at Mississippi St.; 1 win at UNLVnnnLSU: 0-3 versus Florida; 0-3 at Vandy; 0-3 at Arkansas; 8 of 13 conference wins were over Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Tennessee; 12 wins over the following–> Alcorn St. (1 win; RPI 220), Holy Cross (3;178), McNeese St. (1;142), Mississippi Valley St. (1;271), New Orleans (2;289), Nicholls St. (2;159), Princeton (2;165). u00a0The series sweep of CS-Fullerton was the one truly impressive result on their schedule. u00a0How in the world is their RPI 23?!! u00a0A serious joke. u00a0u00a0

          • GoGophers

            Midweek games are meaningless, I agree. u00a0They shouldn’t be considered when figuring RPI in my opinion for the reasons you just gave. u00a0Weekend series tell a lot more than midweek games when evaluating teams.nu00a0u00a0Here are the non conference road/neutral wins versus probable NCAA tournament teams for games played on the weekend for the SEC conference:u00a0Georgia 6-2 over UCLA @ Dodgertown Classic. u00a0That is it!u00a0u00a0Here are the results of the other non conference road/neutral games played on the weekend for the ENTIRE conference versus probable NCAA tournament teams:u00a0u00a0Alabama-> losses to SE Louisiana (6-2) and Central Florida (12-4) in the Mobile Classic;u00a0Georgia-> 3 losses at Stetson (6-3;7-2;8-4);u00a0Kentucky-> lost to Rice (8-7) in the Houston College Classic;South Carolina-> lost atu00a0Clemson (10-5).Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi St., Tennessee, and Vandy->0 non conference road games versus tourney teams….Nice.No reason to question things or compare the conferences? u00a0The SEC should just automatically get their 7, 8, 9, or 10 bids every year I guess.u00a0u00a0In reality, there are 3 very good teams in the SEC this year. u00a0The rest of the conference is very average. u00a0Give some other teams a chance for once. u00a0If not another Big 10 school, how about Charlotte (if they don’t win the A10), Stony Brook, Mercer, Eastern Michigan, Illinois St., UNC Greensboro, or Hawaii? u00a0 u00a0u00a0u00a0u00a0 u00a0

          • GoGophers

            Tennessee’s RPI is 118. u00a0Purdue’s 122. u00a0Only two Big 10 teams have a higher RPI than the Vols. u00a0Here’s how UT earned their RPI:u00a0nnnWent 7-23 in conference play. u00a0Remaining 18 wins->Alabama A & M (1 win; their RPI 298); Austin Peay (1; 148); Bradley (1; 211); Canisius (3; 223); Lipscomb (1; 214); Manhattan (4; 123); Middle Tennessee St. (1; 202); Morehead St. (1; 276); New Orleans (2; 289); UNC Ashville (1; 238); Wisconsin-Milwaukee (2; 246).nnLike you said, it’s all about quality wins…… u00a0The RPI is the biggest fraud going in college baseball.

  • Lbugg2

    Now that clemson took the series from fsu is that enough to host a regional? If not what do they need to do in the acc tourney?

  • Radams4

    If UCLA ends up going to Texas then that game the 2nd day between them could be one for the ages.u00a0 Either Bauer or Cole against TJ.u00a0 Wow would def pay to see that pitchers duel