11regionalprojections_lg

2011 NCAA Baseball Regional Projections (May 11th)

College Baseball Daily continues our weekly countdown to the release of the 2011 NCAA Baseball Regional Brackets. The brackets are done as if the NCAA Tournament was set to begin today. The projections are done through games played on Tuesday. You can check out the full bracket below which is our best estimate if the tournament started today.

1. (1) Vanderbilt* 

2. Oklahoma State

3. East Tennessee State

4. Austin Peay*

1. Southern Miss* 

2. Miss. St.

3. Louisiana

4. Michigan State*

1. (8) Texas* 

2. Texas State*

3. Dallas Baptist

4. Navy*

1. TCU* 

2. Rice

3. Sam Houston State

4. South Dakota State*

1. (4) Oregon State* 

2. Clemson

3. Kansas State

4. Hawaii*

1. Oklahoma 

2. Ole Miss

3. Kent State*

4. Wright State*

1. (5) Florida 

2. Miami (FL)

3. FAU

4. Bethune-Cookman*

1. Georgia Tech 

2. Georgia

3. Arizona

4. Manhattan*

1. (3) Arizona State 

2. Cal-State Fullerton*

3. Auburn

4. San Francisco*

1. Texas A&M 

2. UCLA

3. Houston

4. Creighton*

1. (6) Florida State 

2. Jacksonville

3. Texas Tech

4. Alcorn State*

1. Arkansas 

2. Stanford

3. Troy*

4. Stony Brook*

1. (7) North Carolina 

2. East Carolina

3. Elon*

4. Charlotte*

1. South Carolina 

2. NC State

3. Coastal Carolina*

4. Princeton*

1. (2) Virginia* 

2. Cal

3. UCONN*

4. Old Dominion*

1. Stetson* 

2. FIU

3. Baylor

4. Monmouth*

* Projected Conference Champ
Bold Conference Champ

  • 6-4-3

    Brian, how in the world can you project Stephen F. Austin with a 111 RPI as of Boyd today and Dallas Baptist with a 57 RPI?

    • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

      Actually, I changed Stephen F. Austin to Sam Houston State. I asked William Knox who should be in between Stephen F. Austin and Sam Houston State. He said SFA without looking at the numbers. I just checked them and it is clear that Sam Houston State should be in over them.

    • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

      Actually, I changed Stephen F. Austin to Sam Houston State. I asked William Knox who should be in between Stephen F. Austin and Sam Houston State. He said SFA without looking at the numbers. I just checked them and it is clear that Sam Houston State should be in over them.

  • 6-4-3

    I might could add Louisiana in there also with current 56 RPI

  • TxWolf

    Dallas Baptist should have a two seed ahead of Texas State. DBU has already beaten TCU (twice), Rice, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma with games against Baylor and North Carolina Charllote yet to be played. They have shown to be worthy of a #2.

    • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

      It was a battle between Tx State and DBU for that 2 seed…..

  • matt

    I am not sure how SC falls out of a national seed. They lost their first series of the year – on the road to a decent Ole Miss team that will likely be in the post season. They have series victories over two national seeds. Still ranked top 4, 7 rpi by Boyd’s world. I really have trouble fathoming that.

    • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

      Ole Miss isn’t as good as you make them out to be. The series victory by Ole Miss over S. Carolina was only their third of the season as Kentucky and Tennessee were the other two. They have a 6-15 record against the Top 50 and 7-6 against 51-100. nnSouth Carolina is finally having the injuries catch up to them and going to go through a tough patch here for the next couple of weeks. They were our “nine” national seed.

      • TChow

        So if USC lost it’s first series of the season b/c of “injuries” catching up to them (although they have swept Auburn even without JB Jr), then how is UF a national seed after losing their second series this weekend to unranked Arkansas?

        • TChow

          Also, a UNC team that got swept by an unranked NC State team does not deserve a national seed. Just my opinion.

          • matt

            @TCHow, very keen comments. Brian, I must respectfully disagree, but so be it. Really enjoy the work y’all do here. Thanks. m

      • USCDod15

        So…we just beat Arky two of three which Florida failed to do. We also could still win the SEC regular season title…shared or outright. u00a0Guess that tough patch that you spoke of fell short. I don’t see how you could not put us as a national seed when every other projection has us top 3 or 4.u00a0JB Jr. was a tough loss but we are still winning games without him. The only way we get out of the national seed picture is if we get swept at Bama and then go 0-2 in the SEC Tournament. Not going to happen. Our pitching is still stellar. This team is not as flashy as Vandy or Florida but we beat them both 2 of 3. Moreover, we, despite injuries, have the mentality of a champion and an excellent coaching staff. Those are intangibles that weigh greater than flashiness of talent. Ask Vandy or Florida that.u00a0

  • Crhenley

    uncg?

    • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

      RPI of 76 not enough to get an at-large.

  • Anonymous

    Wow. I must say I’m surprised Fresno St doesn’t make it as an at-large.

    • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

      12-7 in the WAC is less then impressive.nnThey have split 3 out of their 5 WAC series.n..5-5 in the last 10. nnRPI is decent at 30 but 12-7 against the Top 100…4-0 against the Top 50…They were one of the teams on our board that we decided as the last ones out. nn

      • Cokehombre

        RPI is decent at 30 but 12-7 against the Top 100…4-0 against the Top 50… If that’s true about Fresno St. they’re in, just not hosting.

  • Bobby

    unlv???

  • Guest

    South Carolina is definitely a top 8 seed at this point.

    • GoCocks74

      I agree, how is Florida considered a national seed over the Gamecocks? Looks like someone hit the panic button early.

    • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

      No way that team is a Top 8 team in the country without Jackie Bradley Jr. Just my opinion.

      • GoCocks74

        Brian, we certainly miss Bradley Jr. but he wasn’t having the kind of year he probably hoped to have this year at the plate before the injury. Our strength by far this season is pitching and clutch hitting which we have accomplished for the most part even with injuries to a few starters. The rest of our schedule looks pretty favorable as does our record vs other top 25 teams.

      • USCDod15

        With just one statement, you just revealed that you don’t do research very well on individual teams. You just go by your “opinion”. JB Jr.’s season overall was actually quite mediocre. Hitting about .260 and not driving in runners….OBP was low. The biggest gap is the outfield defense. But, with the new bats, this isn’t as big of a factor. Your “opinion” doesn’t matter in national seeding at this point. You look at Carolina’s remaining schedule (UNC Ash, at Alabama three times) and you tell me that they can’t win at least 2-3 of those and at least win one tournament game against a lower seed? Please. Top ten RPI with good wins against Florida, Vandy, Clemson, Auburn, and Arkansas. We went 11-4 against those top 25 RPI teams by the way. You also might want to look into the fact that we are the defending national champions. That plays a big factor if you are on the edge of getting a national seed…which according to others, we are not even close to that edge. Other folks say we are a lock with probably a top 3.nYou think the NCAA committee agrees with your opinion? No one else does that I have seen. Regardless of your “opinion”, projections should be based on resume up to this point and upcoming schedule.nIf I may be frank, your projections suck and are based on a weak argument. That’s why I all you can say it is based on “my opinion”.

        • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

          Actually, last year means ZERO in the projectionsrnSent on the Sprintu00ae Now Network from my BlackBerryu00ae

          • USCDoddy15

            No doubt that last year is last year…but it DOES factors in biases. For example, if the same resume came down to LSU and East Carolina, who do the think the selection committee is going to put as a national seed? Are not projections based on what the selection committee is going to pick? People are biased and they are not going to go by some hard line computer data at all times. Your “projection” isn’t a projection though…it’s a opinion based on what teams are the best. That is not accurate with how it is going to play out. Like I said before, no offense, but your projection is based on an inaccurate opinion that has a weak argument. You didn’t respond to the rest of my post either btw.

          • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

            If the NCAA had a bias…they would of had FSU host last year over UConn. Remember, that FSU was the number 1 seed in that regional and routinely sell out Dick Howser stadium. u00a0

      • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=527165755 Hampton Cooper

        explain to me how south carolina is not a top 8 team. who cares if they don’t have jackie bradley jr. they are still winning. the ncaa does not look at a team and say “o they don’t have this player even though they have won all of these games including wins over clemson, florida, and vandy” remember baseball is a team sport not an individual sport

        • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

          They had lost 3 out of their last five SEC games when these projections were done….they hadn’t been lighting the world on fire.u00a0

          • NationalChamps2010

            You still have North Carolina over South Carolina for a national seed??u00a0 nnAnd by the way… South Carolina is 10-3 since JBJ got hurt…u00a0u00a0 And Adam Matthews is going to be back for the regionals…u00a0 nnBut that is okay, keep hating on the Gamecocks…..u00a0 the defending national champions dont mind.

  • Cngardner

    Not that I’m complaining because you gave Oregon State a national seed but how does ASU have a higher national seed when OSU swept them, leads them by a full game in the PAC-10. Other than this they are pretty comparable record wise and record against Top 25 teams with OSU having a slight advantage. OSU has also not lost a series all year.

    • http://profiles.google.com/jaykdoe Jay Doe

      Agreed, GO BEAVS!!

  • Cfinlden

    Rhode island??

    • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

      Looked at some numbers this week…URI is 3-9 against the Top 100 while being 54th in RPI…they are one of our last teams out!

  • Paul Herring

    You left out Alabama. 30 RPI and currently tied for the lead of the SEC West. WTH??? n

  • AlpineFrog

    How’s the Texas/Oklahoma region going to shake out?u00a0 With TCU, Rice, Texas, A&M,u00a0andu00a0OU all in similar positions, who’s most likely represent in the CWS?u00a0 Also, as a TCU fan, I don’t agree with the idea of going backu00a0through Austin for the Super.u00a0 Would really like to see DBU take out the Longhorns if these predictions come to fruition.u00a0u00a0

  • bucs

    u00a0East Tennessee State if for real!!!!!!!!!!!

  • DeltaDog1990

    JB, Jr. was a huge loss fotu00a0the Gamecocks, but…the most valuableu00a0personu00a0on that team is Ray Tanner.u00a0 Heu00a0elected to put the projected starting pitcher (Steven Neff) for Sunday in the outfieldu00a0and the guy hit two home runs.u00a0 Coach Tanner has a knack for pushing the right buttons at the right time.u00a0 Don’t be surprised to see the Gamecocks win AT LEAST 3 out of their 4 remaining games and then do well in the SEC tourney.u00a0 Under that scenario, do you still see denying them a national seed and hosting the whole way through?u00a0 Gotta give it to ‘em…just MY opinion.

  • CRASH=FAT

    Elon is a lock.u00a0 Maybe they can go to a cool place instead of boring Ga Tech again.u00a0 And dont be shocked if they win a regional this year with all their starting pitching depth

  • Chip (Alaska)

    u00a0Just curious why UC Irvine is left off the list? u00a0I find it hard to believe that the Big West is only a one-bid conference, even though it is a down year. u00a0And a side note, Cal State Fullerton isn’tu00a0hyphenated. u00a0. u00a0

  • guest

    Houston??? there below .500

    • BB

      u00a0Carolina (South Carolina, the real Carolina) has 7 series wins against the top 27 RPI teams…7! – no other team has a resume like that.u00a0 Including 3 series wins against the top 8 RPI teams (Vandy, UF, and Clemson).u00a0 We have had a TON of injuries and stillu00a0reload.u00a0 If the SEC doesn’t get 3 national seeds, something is wrong.u00a0u00a0u00a0

      • CCU dreamer

        I thought Coastal Carolina was the “real” Carolina.

  • Go Navy

    Where would the Regional projected with GT, MSU,u00a0Troy and Navy likely to be held???u00a0