11regionalprojections_lg

2011 NCAA Baseball Regional Projections (May 4th)

College Baseball Daily continues our weekly countdown to the release of the 2011 NCAA Baseball Regional Brackets. The brackets are done as if the NCAA Tournament was set to begin today. The projections are done through games played on Tuesday. You can check out the full bracket below which is our best estimate if the tournament started today.


1. (1) Vanderbilt*

2. Oklahoma State

3. East Tennessee State

4. Austin Peay*

1. Georgia Tech

2. Texas A&M

3. Arizona

4. Purdue*

1. (8) Oregon State*

2. LSU

3. UC-Irvine

4. Hawaii*

1. Oklahoma

2. Clemson

3. Creighton*

4. Wright State*

1. (4) South Carolina

2. East Carolina

3. NC State

4. South Dakota State*

1. North Carolina

2. Elon*

3. Auburn

4. Charlotte*

1. (5) Arizona State

2. Fullerton*

3. Louisiana

4. Monmouth*

1. Fresno State

2. Stanford

3. Stony Brook*

4. San Francisco*

1. (3) Florida

2. Florida Atlantic

3. UAB

4. Navy*

1. Miami (FL)

2. Troy*

3. UCLA

4. Bethune-Cookman*

1. (6) Florida State

2. Georgia

3. Jacksonville

4. Kent State*

1. Stetson*

2. Arkansas

3. FIU

4. UCONN*

1. (7) Texas*

2. Alabama

3. Texas State

4. Manhattan*

1. TCU*

2. Rice

3. Baylor

4. Stephen F. Austin*

1. (2) Virginia*

2. Cal

3. James Madison*

4. Princeton*

1. Southern Miss*

2. Ole Miss

3. Coastal Carolina*

4. Alcorn State*


* Projected Conference Champ

Editor’s Note: Arizona State is currently not eligible for the 2011 NCAA Postseason but will likely be a member of the 2011 Tournament as their appeal is heard.

  • RSN

    Kent St a #4 and Stony Brook a #3?

    • Rfultoncpa

      Ole Miss has a RPI of 42 and is a #2 seed? Miss State has a RPI of 28 and is omitted. I think you have your schools confused. Watch out for LSU. They’re coming on strong. n

  • matt

    Wow. South Carolina at #4? They were #3 last week. I’d be curious to know exactly how they slipped behind Florida after a 4-0 week with an SEC sweep.

    • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

      The loss of Jackie Bradley Jr. is the reason they dropped as they are not as dangerous now.

      • http://hsbaseballdad.blogspot.com Hsbaseballdad

        Yea I agree Jackie Bradley Jr. being out is some big shoes to fill the kid is a beast!

  • Owlmahabound

    Baylor in the field? TCU hosting over Rice? OU hosting over A&M? I can’t say that I agree with any of those decisions.nnIf you’re really using your “if the season ended today” metric, I think you’ve swung and missed in the southwest…either that or the bias I’ve read from some of your posts and tweets is showing through and affecting your projections.nnNew at bat next week, right?n

    • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

      Oklahoma went 2-2 last week with wins over TCU and Texas on the road while they did lose two games to the Longhorns. nnTexas A&M has now lost four out of their last five games with two of them coming to one of the worst teams in the Big 12 in Missouri and the other two losses to UTSA and Sam Houston State. nnOklahoma is ahead of Texas A&M in RPI. nnTCU hosting over Rice? TCU has a 7-4 record against the Top 50 while Rice is only 9-8. Both teams are pretty close in RPI also but TCU has been able to do more damage against the Top 50. nnBaylor is one of the last teams in the tourney so it is tough to argue that they should or shouldn’t be in.

      • Owlmahabound

        If you flip your rationales here, though, A&M has a much better record against the Top 50 than OU (14-8 to OU’s 11-10). Meanwhile, Rice is ahead of TCU by 6 spots in the RPI as of today. nnIf we accept that RPI is the deciding factor, then if it were just a head to head battle between those 4 schools (OU vs A&M, TCU vs Rice), then OU and Rice should host. If we use Top 50 results, it would be A&M and TCU. nnNot trying to bust your balls too hard here; I know this is all guesswork (by anyone)…I guess I just expected a consistent methodology.nnIf the committee looked at it today, would they look at A&M’s last few games as more important than their full body of work? The Aggies, to me anyway, are an enigma. They’re sliding hard but still have a Top 16 type profile. Looking at them head to head with OU, they’re about equal in RPI while A&M has the better performance against Top 50 and Top 100 (21-11 to 14-11) plus a pair of wins over OU in Norman. Unless the committee overweighted their last several games, I can’t see OU being chosen over them. Now, I do believe they’re in a tailspin and may not break out…but that wouldn’t be a consideration in a one-day snapshot, right? nnI don’t think my Owls have as compelling of an argument against TCU, but our overall SOS is substantially higher…hence why our RPI is better with a lesser record. nnI’ll table my Baylor argument, as I really haven’t looked closely at the bottom of the bubble…but a mid 40s RPI team that’s 3 games over .500 overall and 3 games under .500 in the Big 12 just doesn’t feel like a regional team to me.nnThoughts?

        • http://collegebaseballdaily.com Brian Foley

          It is all guess work….I believe over the last ten games is factored in…we lowered South Carolina based on the fact they lost their top player in JBJ! rnSent on the Sprintu00ae Now Network from my BlackBerryu00ae

  • Owlmahabound

    Baylor in the field? TCU hosting over Rice? OU hosting over A&M? I can’t say that I agree with any of those decisions.nnIf you’re really using your “if the season ended today” metric, I think you’ve swung and missed in the southwest…either that or the bias I’ve read from some of your posts and tweets is showing through and affecting your projections.nnNew at bat next week, right?n

  • Anonymous

    Owl – Could have made arguments for either Baylor, K-State or Texas Tech. Baylor’s destiny is in their hands with playing TCU, OK State and Oklahoma coming up, and even though they’ve played less total games (thus less total wins than K State and Tech), they are still .500 against the Top 50 RPI whereas K-State and Tech fall way short in that regard. This is a total inexact science, and I appreciate the reader feedback and would love to hear more on the comments or just email me at [email protected] althought I respect the comment on Rice, I’ve seen TCU in person and they’re a 1. I haven’t seen Rice, but they are on track to play themselves into a 1 if they can rebound from this weekend.

  • Jmcglone

    Mark if UCLA did not have Gerritt Cole and Trevor Bauer and had the same season resume, would they be in the tournament, in your opinion. I mean all they seem to be doing is losing, two out three to Stanford, two out of three to Oregon State, two out of three to San Jose State, two out of three to Nebraska. One decent series win against Arizona, RPI somewhere around the 50s.

    • Anonymous

      Absolutely. Think of it this way. Arizona got in last year going 7th in the Pac-10 with a 12-15 record and only a 33-22 record. At the very least UCLA is going to finish with 15 wins in conference at they’re at 11-7 with 9 conference games remaining. The team you should be questioning is Stanford, not UCLA.

  • Playart21

    How about Dallas Baptist….with a 30-13 record and road wins over TCU, Rice, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St. Washington, Wash St, Texas Tech….should be at least considered.

    • Strike771377

      I second Dallas Baptist! Of course, I’m a tad biased since I graduated from there, but really a great program with some big wins this season! n

  • Basscat3

    How in the He77 can you have LSU and Ol Miss both no. 2 seeds? Thats crazy!!!