I am not going to get into college numbers when comparing them, because most college numbers are useless. The fact that Matusz struck out 16 against San Fransisco really does no good in his future projection. Something I will bring up is the K/BB ratio because I feel it is important no matter what division or league a pitcher is in that they throw strikes and have dominating stuff; Matusz with a 71:15 ratio and Crow with a 67:11. But, Crow plays against better competition blah blah blah that it why I do not want to get into comparing college stats. They are both dominating the college ranks, enough said.
So here is what we got – Crow is a dominating RHP with two plus pitches (FB and Slider) while Matusz has 3 potential plus pitches. You might have seen that Matusz has 3 plus pitches already. I beg to differ. His FB sitting at 90-91 is not a plus pitch. There are some concerns with his velocity. If teams think Matusz sits at 90-91 as a pro, his draft stock will take a hit. Because he goes from possibly an Eric Bedard (92-94 MPH FB) to a young Jamie Moyer (not bad, but not an ace). There are no questions about Crows velo and his secondary pitches – they are both plus.
However, comparing deliveries, Matusz has the advantage by a good margin on Crow. Crow SHOULD throw that hard with his effort delivery. It is not herky jerk per se, but its also not smooth. Matusz’s delivery actually reminds me of Jamie Moyers, nice and smooth – almost melancholy. Matusz is also 6’5. So, it will cause some teams to wonder if he will not actually gain velocity. Matusz doesn’t use a lot of arm speed – he also all legs and leverage (which is a good thing).
I feel Crow’s best two pitches are better than Matusz’s best two. However, Matusz’s third pitch is better than Crow’s third pitch. Simply put, I think Crow is more dominating but Matusz is a safer bet because he already has 3 workable pitches.
Here is how I view them – Crow has a higher ceiling in that if he develops a changeup or a 3rd pitch we could be talking about his stuff being Prior-esque. Matusz on the other hand is the safest bet in the draft. He is going to be a major league pitcher baring an injury. Also, I think he floor is higher than most players. At the very least he is an innings eater 4th starter for a long time.
Lastly, Crow is advised by Boras. Matusz is not. It is almost a given that Boras will demand a ML deal for Crow (bringing up the Prior comparison). So, if a team (the Rays) feels that Crow is the best talent in the draft, is he better by 3 or 4 million than Matusz and Beckham? Probably not.
Furthermore, Matusz is a LHP, so that is a plus. The more I think about it, the more I think Matusz will be the first pitcher taken.